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News Excerpt:

• A report by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) predicts that exploitable fish biomass could decrease by 10 to 30 percent or more by the end of the century if emissions are not curtailed.

More About News

• The report, released on July 10, 2024, during the Thirty-sixth session of the Committee on Fisheries (COFI36) at FAO headquarters in Rome, recommends improving climate impact ensemble modeling accuracy for marine ecosystems and fisheries.
• The report, titled "Climate Change Risks to Marine Ecosystems and Fisheries: Projections to 2100 from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project," presents findings from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP).
• This international network of researchers aims to understand the long-term impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems and fisheries worldwide.
• It also highlights the need to build capacity through tools and training to meet future policy needs.

Key Findings of Report

• Significant declines of more than 10 percent, particularly under a high-emissions scenario, are projected by mid-century for many regions.
• Under this scenario, which anticipates global warming of 3-4 degrees Celsius (°C), fish stock declines could worsen to 30 percent or more in 48 countries and territories by the century's end.
• Notable declines are expected in countries heavily reliant on aquatic food protein (such as Solomon Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Nauru, Portugal, Palau) or top marine fisheries producers (such as China, Peru).
• Conversely, under a low-emissions scenario—projecting global warming of 1.5-2°C—changes stabilize between no change and a decrease of 10 percent or less across 178 countries and territories by the century's end.

Major Fishing Countries

• Seven major fishing countries, responsible for 48 percent of global marine captures in 2022 (China, India, Indonesia, Peru, Russia, Vietnam, and the United States), will likely see declines in exploitable fish biomass under both emissions scenarios.
• Most Asian countries and territories (60 percent) will experience significant declines by mid-century under both scenarios.
• Strong declines are projected for Central and South American countries like Guatemala, El Salvador, Uruguay, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Panama, and Colombia.
• In Europe, the third-largest fisheries and aquaculture producer, projections are mixed. High latitudes (such as Russia) and the Eastern Mediterranean Sea (Greece, Italy, Malta) might see increases under high emissions, but overall trends indicate declines for most countries under both scenarios.
• In Africa, most countries and territories are expected to see declines in exploitable fish biomass, with the exception of northern regions and certain islands (Morocco and Mauritius).
• Oceania faces some of the most severe losses globally, adding to the region's existing climate hazards and risks.