GS Paper I
News Excerpt:
India's Hindu population declined by nearly 8% between 1950 and 2015 while the Muslim population’s share grew a record 43% in the same period, according to a study by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM).
About the study:
Hypothesis: The main hypothesis is that a reducing majority i.e. a negative rate of change in the share of the majority population (and tautologically an increase in the share of the minority population) from 1950-2015 means that we can safely conclude that there exists an overall congenial environment for increasing diversity in the country.
Methodology:
- The PM-EAC report titled ‘Share of Religious Minorities: A cross country analysis’ studied data on religious composition of populations for 167 countries from 1950 to 2015.
- The focus of the study remains only on those countries that had a majority religion (more than 50 percent share of the total population) for 1950.
- To study the demographic changes among the religious minority over the last 65 years; the study was restricted to the definition of majority (and by extension minority) as defined in 1950.
- Countries for which the dataset did not label a majority religious denomination in 1950 were excluded from the analysis.
- The analysis relied on the Religious Characteristics of States Dataset 2017 to track religious composition across countries.
- This is a descriptive study on the status of minorities as proxied by a change in their proportion of the population of the country.
- This is seen to be a reliable proxy as any change in the minority population is fostered via policies including defining minorities, which itself is a rare practice globally.
Key highlights:
- The dipping majority population and rising minority population in India were in line with global trends, also seen in Europe, but stood out in relation to India’s neighbors.
- The Indian experience is similar to most of the world’s high-income and liberal democracies, such as OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries which have seen a major decline in the share of majority religion.
- Of 35 OECD countries studied, 25 were from Europe, and the share of majority religious denominations has decreased by 29 per cent in these countries.
About the SAARC+1 countries:
- The members of SAARC are India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bhutan and Maldives. SAARC+1 includes Myanmar as well.
- The share of the majority religious denomination has decreased in 4 countries while its share has increased in 5 countries.
- All the Muslim-majority countries witnessed an increase in the share of the majority religious denomination except Maldives where the share of the majority group (Shafi’i Sunnis) declined by 1.47 percent.
- Among the five non-Muslim majority countries, Myanmar, India, and Nepal saw a decline in the share of the majority religious denomination while Sri Lanka and Bhutan saw their share increase.
Bangladesh:
- In 1950, Muslims constituted 76 percent of the population in what was then East Pakistan and is today Bangladesh. Hindus were the second largest share of the population at 23 percent.
- In 2015, the Hindu population in Bangladesh declined to 8 percent - a 66 percent decrease.
Bhutan
- The majority population of Tibetan Buddhists in Bhutan increased by almost 18 percent between 1950 and 2015. The second largest share of the population was Hindus at 23 percent.
- In 2015, the Hindu population in Bhutan declined by 50 percent to constitute just 11 percent of Bhutan’s demography while the share of Buddhism increased to 84 percent.
Sri Lanka
- The share of the majority Buddhist population increased by 5 percent in the period under study. In 1950, Buddhists comprised 64 percent of the population and the second largest share of the population was Hindus at 20 percent.
- By 2015, the share of the Buddhist population had increased to 67 percent while the share of Hindu population declined to around 15 percent - a stark decline of 28 percent.
Pakistan
- The share of total Muslim population in Pakistan increased by 10 percent between 1950 and 2015.
- The Hindu population in Pakistan declined from a 13 percent in 1950 to just 2 percent in 2015 i.e. a 80% decline.
Afghanistan
- The share of the Muslim population increased from 99.4 percent in 1950 to 99.7 percent in 2015, leaving no room for any meaningful analysis.
- The Sunni population increased from 88.7 percent to 89 percent while the Shias remained stable at 10.7 percent.
Maldives
- Maldives was the only Muslim-majority country that witnessed a slight decline in the share of the majority group (Shafi’i Sunnis) by 1.47 percent to reduce from 99.8 percent in 1950 to 98.4 percent in 2015.
- Meanwhile, the Buddhist, Christian, and Hindu populations saw a slight increase.
Nepal
- Nepal witnessed an approximately 4 percent decrease in the share of its majority Hindu population.
- On the other hand, the share of Muslim population increased from 2.6 percent to 4.6 percent - a jump of 75 percent.
Myanmar
- The share of the Buddhist population in Myanmar declined by 10 percent from 84 percent in 1950 to 75 percent in 2015.
- In the same period, the share of Christian population almost doubled (from 4 percent to 8 percent).
India
- In India the share of the majority Hindu population decreased by 7.82 percent between 1950 and 2015 (from 84.68 percent to 78.06 percent).
- The share of the Muslim population in 1950 was 9.84 percent and increased to 14.09 percent in 2015 - a 43.15 percent increase in their share.
- The share of the Christian population rose from 2.24 percent to 2.36 percent - an increase of 5.38 percent between 1950 and 2015.
- The share of the Sikh population increased from 1.24 percent in 1950 to 1.85 percent in 2015 - a 6.58 percent rise in their share.
- The share of the Buddhist population witnessed a noticeable increase from 0.05 percent in 1950 to 0.81 percent.
- The share of Jains in the population of India decreased from 0.45 percent in 1950 to 0.36 percent in 2015.
- The share of the Parsi population in India witnessed a stark 85 percent decline, reducing from 0.03 percent share in 1950 to 0.004 percent in 2015.
Criticism of the Methodology:
- The method used to represent the Muslim numbers is not the same presentation of data for Buddhists and Jains. If one were to apply the same calculations, it would show the Buddhist population had increased by 1,520% in this time when in fact their share had increased from 0.05% to 0.81% in the total population. The working paper, instead, refers to this as just a “noticeable increase”.
- The PFI added that successive Censuses have shown that the decadal growth rate of Muslims has been on the decline for three decades now, with this decline more pronounced in Muslims than in Hindus. It also noted that National Family Health Surveys conducted by the Union government had also shown that the TFR for all religious groups in India was declining, with the largest decline being seen amongst Muslims.
- The latest NFHS (2019-2021) report released in May 2022, showed that the TFR for Muslims was at 2.36, only marginally higher than the 1.94 TFR recorded for the aggregate of all Hindu communities and of the national average, which was at 2.
- Population Foundation of India, a non-profit that works on addressing population issues through research and advocacy, cautioned that the PM-EAC report should not be interpreted incorrectly to incite fear or discrimination against any community.
- The media should not portray the data selectively to only highlight increase in Muslim population, misrepresenting broader demographic trends.
Conclusion:
- The Mean of the distribution capturing the change in majority religious denomination between 1950 and 2015 is -21.9. This means that globally the share of the majority religious denomination has gone down by approximately 22 percent.
- The analysis shows that the world has become more heterogeneous in the previous six decades. In 1950, the starting point for our study, the share of the majority population in a society was 75 percent. The share of the majority religion in countries around the world has reduced by 22 percent from 1950 to 2015.
- India’s performance suggests that there is a conducive environment to foster diversity in the society. It is not possible to promote better life outcomes for the disadvantaged sections of society without providing a nurturing environment and societal support through a bottom-up approach.
- By way of illustration, India is one of the few countries which has a legal definition of minorities and provides constitutionally protected rights for them. The outcomes of these progressive policies and inclusive institutions are reflected in the growing number of minority populations within India.
