The harms of de-globalization
Source: By Dani Rodrik: Mint
Worries about the inadequacies of global governance and weakening multilateralism have heightened in recent years because the US and other leading advanced economies have increasingly put their domestic agendas first. Unilateral approaches have dominated trade, industrial policies, and the climate transition. The World Trade Organization has been reduced to an ineffective bystander.
For the globalist commentariat, this is bad news. For the global economy, however, the consequences are less clear—and could be salutary. In fact, in a world in which national governments focused on their own sustainable prosperity and social cohesion, the global economy would do just fine. Upon closer scrutiny, the case for global economic governance turns out to be considerably weaker than is commonly presupposed.
Start from the conventional case for global cooperation. We live in a world that is economically interconnected, goes the usual argument. What one country does often affect others? If governments do not coordinate their policies and reach agreement on common rules, these spillovers could leave everyone worse off. But this reasonable-sounding argument has a big hole: the mere existence of spillovers is not an adequate justification for global coordination. In the overwhelming majority of cases where economic policies generate cross-border spillovers, national governments legitimately retain full autonomy—with little apparent detriment to the world economy.
Consider a government that wants to double its budget for tertiary public education or for the training of scientists and engineers. Should other governments be allowed to object and invoke international rules to constrain or discipline the policy? Even the most diehard globalists would consider this an absurd possibility. But there is definitely a cross-border spillover, and it could be a large one: if the policy is carried out, the home country will strengthen its comparative advantage in skill-intensive goods, harming its competitors in global markets.
Perhaps global rules should focus on policies that might be harmful to the home economy. Investing in public education would most likely benefit the domestic economy, even if it harms certain trading partners. But raising import tariffs or subsidizing certain industries would under many circumstances harm the domestic economy as well as trading partners.
But this approach would not produce a reliable guide, either. Import tariffs, subsidies and myriad other policies that might decrease efficiency under perfect market conditions can be desirable under second-best, real-world conditions—says to address regional unemployment or technological externalities. It is not clear that global bureaucracies would be better positioned—or viewed as more legitimate—than national policy authorities to determine the appropriateness of such policies for the home economy. And, in any case, shouldn’t democracies be allowed to make their own mistakes?
The argument for global governance is much stronger for the rather narrow category of policies that are strictly ‘beggar-thy-neighbour’—the harm they generate abroad is a necessary precondition of the benefits produced at home. Exploiting a country’s monopoly power on world markets, maintaining low capital taxes to shift paper profits from abroad, or undervaluing the domestic currency to ‘steal’ employment from abroad are classic cases. But such examples are few and far between.
What about ‘climate protectionism,’ which is at the centre of contemporary worries around unilateralism? While US green subsidies’ local-content requirements and the EU’s tariffs have raised the ire of third countries, such concerns are misplaced. Climate change is an existential problem for the world, and addressing it is a true global public good.
For a variety of largely domestic reasons, the US and the EU have taken major strides toward advancing the climate transition. That is cause for celebration, not condemnation, even if they have done so unilaterally and using very different instruments. Their governments’ desire to keep some of the benefits at home by prioritizing the competitive position of domestic firms is understandable—and a small price well worth paying for the world economy as a whole.
Too many limits on national policy autonomy can also produce a backlash against the global economy. One consequence of the erosion of national sovereignty under hyper-globalization was an increase in economic anxiety and the sense of a loss of control among many citizens. These are circumstances that exacerbate xenophobia and out-group hostility. As import competition fuelled job losses in many communities, voters turned to ethno-nationalist, authoritarian populists. So, when governments pursue more inclusive economic, social, and environmental agendas, they provide a further benefit to the world economy. Well-governed economies where prosperity is widely shared are more likely to welcome expanded international trade, investment and immigration. As economics teaches, it is the home economy that reaps the bulk of the benefits from openness to the world economy, provided the benefits are distributed equitably. When countries help themselves, they help the global economy.
